Key Events: Signs of strength
Payrolls increased by larger than expected (possibly juiced by World Cup hiring) and the number of job openings jumped by the most since May 2024. The ISM services and manufacturing indices both rose while the new orders component – thought of as a leading indicator – rose to 57.3.
One caveat to the strong data is potential consumer weakness; auto and credit card delinquencies rose, suggesting weakness under the surface.
Market review: Good news is: Bad
While stock moves sometimes appear random, stocks reacted negatively this week to strong jobs data because that strength might make the Fed more likely to raise rates than lower, hurting market valuations.
Technology stocks led the broad market down, breaking a 9-week winning streak.
Outlook: Markets – to the moon, or perhaps Mars?
The SpaceX IPO is the big story this week. You can find the bull case and bear case online. Make your own decision whether to buy it or not; but you need to be aware of what you might be buying – and take note of the history of large IPOs in the first chart below. Returns often fall short of the pre- IPO hype.
There may be no perfect comparison for SpaceX, but Amazon is instructive. Amazon came public in 1997 during the technology bull market with a single line of business – book sales – yet revenue was growing 100% quarter over quarter. It has transformed multiple industries since its IPO.
- SpaceX notes that a significant portion of its addressable market – $22.7T of its claimed $28.5T total – is AI powered business software and workflow automation. For context, Grandview Research estimates the current market for such services is approximately $170 Billion. SpaceX investors are betting on this market being 100 times larger than it is today.
- SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 Trillion market capitalization at IPO. With $18.7 Billion of 2025 revenue, that implies a Price to Sales multiple of 94x. Amazon came public at 28x – expensive, but with revenue growing over 800% annually! Optimistic projections suggest SpaceX revenue might grow 50% annually over the next four years, driven by Starlink and Starshield, not the AI business – far slower growth than Amazon at IPO. For a broad comparison, the S&P 500 technology index trades at a multiple of 9 times sales.
Amazon’s value today has almost nothing to do with selling books. SpaceX may well change the world — and the moon and Mars — but the valuation is not, by any means, cheap. The comparison of SpaceX to Amazon illustrates another important point – companies are staying private longer, and more value is being created prior to the IPO. Amazon came public 3 years after it was founded, whereas SpaceX has spent 24 years growing as a private company. Value creation is shifting towards the private markets.
For investors, two timeless risk-management principles apply: a) size your position appropriately b) be cautious with leverage or borrowed funds; ensure a loss won’t affect your livelihood. That said, SpaceX shares could easily surge on the IPO. Some index funds will face significant forced buying while hedge funds, among others, are likely to position themselves in advance of those potential purchases. As always, the goal is not to predict the outcome, but to have a plan that works across multiple scenarios. Regardless of your thoughts on SpaceX, build a portfolio that meets your goals and limits the damage any single position can cause.
Large IPOs tend to underperform the stock market
SpaceX will be the largest IPO on record
Value is shifting to private markets as IPOs come later
OneAscent Navigator Outlook: June 2026
This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client. These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice. The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own. Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors. OneAscent can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
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- Source: Bloomberg
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit NYFED-Credit Panel
- Source: Ark-invest: ARK’s Expected Value For SpaceX In 2030: ~$2.5 Trillion Enterprise Value
- Source: Morningstar: SpaceX: What Investors Need to Know About Its Enormous Upcoming IPO | Morningstar
- Space Exploration Technologies – S-1
- Source: company filings AMAZON COM INC (Form: S-1/A, Received: 04/21/1997 00:00:00)
- Source: company filings
- Soruce: Grandview research AI Automation Market Size & Share | Industry Report, 2033
- Source: Ark-invest report
- Source: FactSet
- Source: Hamilton Lane
- Market Returns reference the following indices: Large Cap – S&P 500, Mid Cap Growth – Russell Midcap growth, Mid Cap Value – Russell Midcap Value, Small Cap – Russell 2000, Developed – MSCI EAFE, Emerging – MSCI Emerging Markets, Aggregate – Bloomberg US Aggregate, High Yield – Bloomberg High Yield